As the Sabah crisis escalates, leaving several dead and more to follow, politicians from both the Philippines and Malaysia are quick to point fingers and lay the blame on convenient targets. Spin doctors had started crafting complex webs of half truths and fantastic lies, banking on old connections and malicious minds. The finish product: another convenient excuse for the administration, another mistake blamed on Aquino’s favorite whipping boy/girl.
But is the blame-Arroyo-game, or for both countries - blame-the-opposition, truly believable this time around? Or should the public set its sights on another conspiracy theory - one that is grander, more plausible and truly disturbing?
The facts
On February 9, more than two hundred supporters of the Sultan of Sulu led by his brotherRaja Muda Ajbimuddin Kiramlanded on the shores of Sabah. Their goal: to reclaim their homeland.
Reports claimed the group was arrested or encircled but details remain fuzzy. The standoff had begun.
On February 26, President Benigno Aquino III finally issued a statement calling on Kiram's forces to return to the Philippines and face the consequences of their actions.
Three days after, Malaysian forces attacked the Filipino Muslims. The aftermath left 12 Filipinos dead, as well as the owner of the house where the Raja Muda (crown prince) was holed up. Only two Malaysian officers were killed.
Further emboldened by Aquino disowning the group, Malaysia ordered a crackdown against the "intruders," launching air strikes and mortar attacks on the coastal town of Lahad Datu. But as the two countries held their breath awaiting the outcome of the attacks, news the next day proclaimed, "
Filipinos survive attack."
The Sultan's brother and his men were apparently able to escape the security cordon around the area and are now bracing themselves for another attack. Kiram said Raja Muda
calledon Wednesday morning to say that they are safe and had eaten, although still being pursued by Malaysian military forces. "The truth is they are nervous. Who will not be nervous when you are against all odds?” said the Sultanate's spokesperson Abraham Idjirani.
Interestingly, as Kiram narrates this in his home in Taguig, Aquino remains aloof and continues to issue messages through the media.
Digression: Lack of diplomatic finesse
In my opinion, Aquino's decision on the matter defies logic.From the Manila hostage crisis involving Hong Kong tourists to the Sabah dispute, the President still lacks diplomatic finesse - or perhaps diplomacy itself.
Question 1: You are supposedly
negotiating for a peaceful resolution. Why would you refuse dialogue and expect the other party to surrender without any condition or compromise?
Question 2: You want them to return home. Why would you tell them that once they do they are going to be slapped with criminal and war charges?
Question 3: You snubbed them for more than two years.^ What gives you the right to accuse them of being unreasonable?
Question 4: Your decision to disown the group and their cause basically undermined the country's claim on Sabah. How can you expect them to trust you and leave the land they are fighting for?
King of all conspiracies
As the plot thickens and media networks dig for other angles, numerous people have become entangled in the story, creating a web of issues rife with possibilities of conspiracy and demolition jobs.
As election draws nearer for both the Philippines and Malaysia, party politics had been dragged into the discourse with the administrations attempting to save face by laying the blame on the opposition.
Conspiracy theory #1:Former president Gloria Arroyo and supporters are behind the Sultanate's actions
Motive:To sabotage Aquino government. For revenge and opportunity to seize power or influence.
On March 4, Aquino
told media, “We are aware that there are those who conspired to bring us to this situation – a situation that has no immediate solutions. Some of their identities are clear to us, while others continue to skulk in the shadows. The family of Sultan Jamalul Kiram could not possibly have settled on this course of action alone.”
Signs: Presence of former security adviser Norberto Gonzales in Kiram's home has raised speculations that Arroyo is conspiring with the Sultanate to make a mockery and to sabotage the Aquino government. Kiram once ran for senator under Arroyo's slate (Team Unity '07).
Why this might not be true:While I hate siding with Arroyo's minions, there really is no concrete evidence for this and is obviously a way to divert the blame from the Executive to its opponents. It is a very convenient excuse and an old tactic. The boy who cried wolf would probably be better off leaving broken records behind and finding more creative excuses next time.
Why this theory is bothersome:Aquino not only lays the blame on Arroyo for the nth time, he also undermines the Sultanate of Sulu's capacity to decide on their own. With such accusations, he belittles what they stand for. I doubt it that Kiram would send his brother and crown prince to Sabah just to play politics with Arroyo or at a price. Our Muslim brothers won't give their life for these tainted politicians. I truly believe that they went there to fight for their homeland and their beliefs.
Conspiracy theory #2:Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim instigated the crisis as election draws near
Motive: Same as Arroyo, to sabotage the ruling party.
Signs: A picture of Ibrahim with Moro National Liberation Front chairman Nur Misuari and an Inquirer article quoting unnamed Filipino intelligence sources that a Sabah politician allied to a Malaysian opposition leader met with the Sultanate of Sulu.
Why this might not be true:Again, the "proof" is pretty flimsy and there is always the possibility that Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razik and Mahathir Mohamad (former PM and Ibrahim's mentor before the falling out) are implicating Ibrahim to sully his public image. Malaysias and Philippine politics are similar afterall...
Why this theory is bothersome:I doubt that Ibrahim would risk losing Sabah (for Malaysia) just to be able to throw potshots against Najib. I mean, even if you're opposition, you don't want your country to lose additional territory, especially since you're also gunning for the seat of power. At the same time, Najib and his men are wholly to blame for not detecting the Sultanate's forces earlier. Like Aquino, it's a cheap trick to shift the public's attention.
Conspiracy theory #3 (my pick):Kiram and group were being ignored by Aquino because the governments of Malaysia and the Philippines are conspiring with each other to quell the various Muslim groups.
Motive:The Philippines is relying on Malaysia to disarm the MILF through peace talks. They both did not want the Sultanate to be involved because of their claim on Sabah which will complicate the proceedings as the MILF had already agreed to the watered-down (in my opinion) Bangsamoro framework. It is both in the interest of ruling parties of Malaysia and the Philippines to isolate Kiram.
Signs: Aquino's statements basically echoed and welcomed Malaysia's militarist actions against the group. It called for peaceful negotiations but did not give the Sultanate options and even threatened them with war and criminal charges. His disowning of the Sultanate also emboldened Malaysia to push through with its attack against the group.
Why this might be true: Of course the government is trying to keep close ties with Malaysia which is pivotal in brokering the peace deal with the MILF - supposed to be one of PNoy's legacies. During the Marcos regime, the strongman orchestrated Operation Merdeka to aggressively reclaim Sabah. However, the plan backfired and resulted in the Jabida massacre. It was Ninoy who exposed the massacre and was rumored to have made a deal with Mahathir to back him against Marcos. Later, when Cory was in power, she attempted to raise the possibility of dropping the claim on Sabah but was opposed by Congress. Now, her son is doing the same thing by implying that he wants nothing to do with Kiram. In fact, Aquino has yet to discuss his thoughts on the Sabah claim itself. It is also interesting to note the United States' silence on the issue, even on humanitarian grounds (a village is being bombarded with mortar bombs!). Both Malaysia and the Philippines are US allies. As far as the US is concerned, the less outspoken Muslim groups in Mindanao, the better. With the MILF and the Sultanate out of the picture, the US can fully utilize Mindanao against China, among other things.
Conspiracy theory #4 (maybe): The MNLF is backing the Sultanate
Motive: Left out from the GRP-MILF peace deal, the MNLF is seeking a second chance to pursue their interests. It is not surprising that they share Kiram's wish to reclaim Sabah (Bangsamoro).
Signs and why this might be true: MNLF chairman Nur Misuari visiting Kiram and reports of his members joining the Royal Sulu...Misuari admitted that some of their men are in Sabah but not as MNLF. Kiram likewise said they can't stop people from joining them but they cannot claim they are MNLF or MILF.
*But in my humble opinion, I don't think this conspiracy (if you will call it that) is alarming, nor surprising. If the MNLF supports the Sabah claim then that's it. It's pretty straight forward and actually understandable.